![]() It applied a single algorithm to the data from all satellites. GlobWave, a database of altimeter data from seven satellites, solved this problem. Satellites soon provided a better way to gather wave data, but there was one drawback: the many different algorithms used in processing made the data unwieldy. Cardone’s colleagues found that the recorders on ships are only reliable for waves up to 9 meters (30 feet), and buoys are moored along coasts, far from the open ocean. Wave recorders mounted on ships and buoys also have their limits. Mariners have traditionally reported their observations of wave heights to the National Weather Service (NWS), but these are fairly subjective. Measuring wave heights over the open ocean is challenging even today. ![]() One thing they were missing was better wave data. “So we said let’s find a data set that can validate the models and get them to perform in these extreme cases.” “There was something missing,” Swail said. Swail and Cardone found that their models performed poorly above 12 meters (40 feet). Five more deadly oil rig accidents occurred before 1990, underscoring the need for more reliable models. Then, in 1982, an oil rig off the Atlantic coast of Canada was pummeled by 190-kilometer-per-hour (100-knot) winds and waves up to 20 meters (65 feet) high. Navy Minemen 2nd Class Matthew Rishovd (left) and Kody Egelhoff make adjustments to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration weather buoy in the Atlantic Ocean on January 25, 2008. This was a fundamental change in how things were done.” Andrew Cox, president of Oceanweather, said, “Way back, if you wanted to do structure design, you looked at very extreme sea state data and maps and took an educated guess of what the wave climate would look like. The experience led Cardone, a former research scientist and professor, to co-found a company called Oceanweather based on providing ocean wind and wave forecasting data. That model not only made Navy operations safer it helped build more seaworthy oil and gas rigs. For the first time, forecasting the sea state became possible. Navy using real-time wind and storm data from reconnaissance flights and other naval programs like the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). With a team at New York University, he developed the first spectral wave model, a mathematical model that attempted to predict how waves interact at different frequencies. Yes it’s a rogue wave, but not an impactful one.” Researchers have found that very extreme sea states, not rogue waves, destroy most ships and structures at sea.Īs early as the 1960s, Cardone had been searching for new ways to measure extreme sea states. “For an oil platform that got 46 feet last week, who cares. So you get one that’s four meters,” Swail said. “But most rogue waves actually occur in quite low sea states where the average waves are two meters. “You need to be either really unlucky to encounter one, or really lucky to measure one.” Instruments on the Draupner E oil platform in the North Sea captured a 25.6 meter (84.0 foot) wave in 1995. “Rogue waves are the needle in the haystack,” Swail said. Yet because they are inherently difficult to measure, there are only a handful of measurements of such waves in high seas. In a very extreme sea state, where waves reach at least 14 meters (46 feet), a rogue wave could crest at nearly 28 meters (92 feet). Though somewhat controversial, scientists have recently defined a rogue wave as roughly twice as high as the surrounding waves. Rosenbaum, Royal Navy Media Archive)Īfter the München’s demise, many speculated that a rogue wave, a monstrous wave that appears out of nowhere, was to blame. Even with 8-meter (26-foot) waves crashing against the bridge, the ship managed to sustain no damage. HMS Edinburgh endures storm force weather in the South Atlantic. If they could identify where and when heavy weather caused high seas, they might be able to prevent catastrophes like the sinking of the München. Meteorologist Val Swail and his late colleague, meteorologist Vincent Cardone, wanted to predict these very extreme sea states. When rolling waves collide with surface waves, they create what scientists call very extreme sea states, the kind that scuttle ships and destroy derricks. Powerful weather systems like hurricanes generate ocean swell, which spawns waves that roll out over great distances. It was concluded that an “unknown weather-related event” caused its disappearance. Though nearly a hundred ships and planes combed the Atlantic, the München was never found. But on December 12 at 3 a.m., the München tapped out an S.O.S. With a length of 200 meters (656 feet), the ship was one of the biggest ever built at the time and was designed to withstand intense storms and hurricanes. In the winter of 1978, the merchant ship MS München set out across the Atlantic Ocean to deliver cargo to the United States.
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